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Church Growth Modelling

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Dynastic Cycle

This model is based on the change of dynasties in rural China. Farmers produce crops and are taxed by their rulers. Bandits steal from the farmers and are in turn hunted and killed by the rulers. As the rulers crack down on bandits some farmers are also killed in the process. This system dynamics is based on the differential equation model of Feichtinger, Forst & Piccardi who investigated the limit cycle and chaotic behaviour of the scenario. It shows how simple interactions between populations can produce long periods of stability in society with periodic bursts of anarchy and despotism.

The model was developed with system dynamics and implemented in "Stella Architect" produced by ISEE Systems. The online simulation is hosted by ISEE systems.

The simulation is embedded below and requires a minimum width of screen. Alternatively it can be open in a separate window:

  • Feichtinger G, Forst CV & Piccardi C, (1996). A Nonlinear Dynamical Model for the Dynastic Cycle. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 7(2), 257-271.

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Church Growth Modelling