Church Growth Modelling

April 2019

• Online simulation: How to Build a Model of Church Growth. Use the System Dynamics methodology.

March 2018

• Blog post: Enthusiasts – Quantity or Quality. What is best: to have more enthusiasts, or to have more effective enthusiasts?

February 2018

• Blog post: Billy Graham, Church Growth and Revival. Includes Billy Graham's visit to Wales in 1946.

November 2017

• Blog post: John Wesley Under the Contemporary Spotlight.

September 2017

• Blog post: John Wesley, Enthusiasm and Today’s Church.

June 2017

• Blog post: Church Growth Limited by Evangelistic Purity. The balance of enthusiasts and inactive believers influences church culture, and thus evangelistic effectiveness.
• Re-arrangement of model and results pages under the four main model groups of Limited Enthusiasm, Discipleship/Congregational, Limits to Church Growth and Sociological.

May 2017

• Blog post: Church Growth & the Perils of Second Order Feedback. The effect of institutionalism on church growth.
• The Growth and Decline of the Welsh Presbyterians. Application of the Institutional Model
• Blog post: Feedback and Church Growth. The role of reinforcing and balancing feedback loops in church growth.

January 2017

• Online simulation of Turchin's Metaethnic Frontier & Asabiya Model of Imperial Expansion. Imperial collapse is explained by the empire's inability to maintain social cooperation - its asabiya.
• Blog post: A Prophecy of Church Decline. An analysis of eight UK denominations comparing patterns of decline.

November 2016

• Blog post: Infectious Church Growth: An “Agent-Based” View. The Limited Enthusiasm Model of church growth implemented in NetLogo as an agent-based model.
• Online simulation of agent-based models of epidemic behaviour. SIR Epidemic Lattice, Susceptible Led; SIR Epidemic Lattice, Infected Led.
• Blog post: The Rise & Decline of British Methodism. An application of the institutional model of church growth to the membership data of the GB Methodists.
• Online simulation of the Collins Theory of Geopolitics with Logistical Load . The growth of an empire is limited by its ability to get resources to the frontiers where conflict takes place.

October 2016

• Online simulation of the Limited Enthusiasm Model of Church Growth. Updated version using Stella Architect and the talk through story of the model construction.
• Online simulation of the Collins Theory of Geopolitics. A model of the growth of empires through wars on their boundaries.

September 2016

• Blog post: Rise and Decline of Western Civilisation. A possible connection between church decline and that of Western civilisation due to lack of social cooperation.

August 2016

• Online simulation of the Dynastic Cycle model of stability, anarchy and despotism in rural China.
• Stella Guide 6 - Overshoot and Collapse. How to build a system dynamics model in Stella using an archetype at the heart of the institutional model of church growth.

July 2016

• Blog post: Modelling Secularisation. Part 3 of Christianity versus the Diversity Ideology. A system dynamics model of the church and side of the competition model, viewing secularisation in a restricted sense as the decline of the church.
• Blog post: Churches or Political Parties: Who has the Largest Membership? A comparison of membership figures between UK political parties and churches.
• Application if the Institutional Model of Church Growth to the GB Methodists. Uses an extended version of the Institutional Model.
• Blog post: Revival is Real. An investigation into the changes in congregational membership data in the Rhondda Valley around the time of the 1904/5 revival.

June 2016

• Blog post: Conversion to the Diversity Ideology. Part 2 - Justification of Hypotheses. Examples drawn from the public space of organisational and individual conversion to Diversity.
• Blog post: The New Ideology: Part 1, Model Construction. An attempt to understand the competition in the public space between Christianity and the "Diversity Ideology", which is the current manifestation of humanism including LGBT+ issues.

May 2016

• Blog post: Where to Plant a Church. Uses three system dynamics models of church growth to help inform the best location to plant a church in the UK.

April 2016

• Blog post: Rewriting History. What happens when a secular age, with an atheistic ideology, misunderstands past church growth.

March 2016

• Blog post: Church Growth Limited by Inadequate Resource Production. How resources can make a barrier to congregational growth.
• Institutional model and results. A sociological model applying the organisational lifecycle to church growth and decline.

February 2016

• Blog post: Why Revivals Stopped in the UK, and the Churches Declined. Six reasons given as to why revivals may have stopped in the UK. Blog concludes the series on church decline, conversion and revival.
• Blog post: Revival and Church Growth – Dealing with Objections. Answers to four common objections given to the reality of revival in Wales.

January 2016

• Application of the Limited Enthusiasm with Spiritual Life model to the 1904/5 Welsh Revival.

December 2015

• Blog post: The “Twitter Mob” and Free Speech – A Systems Perspective. Some Thoughts on the Christmas Message of David Robertson, Free Church of Scotland.
• The Self-Enhancing Resource Model. A metaphorical model of church growth to illustrate the limits to growth imposed by the church growing through the resource of reputation, popularity or legitimacy. The church requires a critical mass in size and reputation in order to grow.
• Blog post: Church Decline Caused by Lack of Revival. An investigations using data from the Presbyterian Church of Wales to show how 20th century church decline is caused by a drop in the number of revivals, hence causing a drop in conversion.

November 2015

• Added a section on Modelling to the web site. Including the model fidelity, theory and methodology as applied to the church growth models. Also added an initial selection of guides to SD software Stella and agent based software NetLogo.
• Blog post: Church Decline Caused by Lack of Conversions. An investigations using data from the Presbyterian Church of Wales to show how 20th century church decline is caused by a fall in conversion rate.

October 2015

• Blog post: Closing Rural Churches. A response to a proposal by Giles Fraser that the resources released from closing rural churches could fund centres to regrow the church in the future.
• Blog post: Communicating the Gospel. How much does the gospel need to be understood to be communicated? Lessons from street preachers in Boston.
• Anglican Church Decline in the West. A report based on the two blogs written in July and August.

September 2015

• The Bounded Resource Model. A metaphorical model of church growth to illustrate the limits to growth imposed by the church generating resources to facilitate growth.

August 2015

• Models of how aging affects church decline. Why the decline can become a straight line.
• Blog post on visit to the Colorado Cowboys for Jesus Church, Colorado Springs.
• Blog post: Anglican Church Decline in the West – Possible Reasons. A follow up to a previous blog. Suggests reasons why the Church of England is declining slower than the Church in Wales, Scottish Episcopal Church, and the Episcopal Church of the USA.

July 2015

• New paper: Newton’s Laws of System Dynamics. Presented at the 33rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Cambridge, MA, July 2015.
• Blog post: Anglican Church Decline in the West – The Data. Compares recent and attendance and membership data from the Church of England, Church in Wales, Scottish Episcopal Church, and the Episcopal Church of the USA.

June 2015

• Blog post: Limits to Church Growth - Part 2. Explores the limit to church growth brought about by lack of enthusiasts - their inability to keep reproducing themselves.

May 2015

• Added models on Limits to Church Growth. Specifically the Constant Demand Model, and the Supply and Demand Model.

April 2015

• Revised website for Church Growth Modelling uploaded.
• Blog post: Institutionalism and Church Decline. A system dynamics model to illustrate the article by Gillan Scott: Church of England Mistakes Mission for the Management of Decline. Archbishop Cranmer Blog, 23/04/15.
• Blog post: The Nagaland revival of 1976-1982. An example of the Limited Enthusiasm principle.

January 2015

• Blog post: Limits to Church Growth - Part 1. Explores two limits to church growth, lack of supply by the church, and lack of demand by society.

November 2014

• Blog post: The Eyam Plague of 1666: A System Dynamics Model. An introduction to modelling the spread of a disease with system dynamics. Similar process to the limited enthusiasm hypothesis in church growth.
• Blog post: Is the Charismatic Revival Over? The Changing Nature of Worship Songs. Evidence for the end of charismatic renewal as a movement from an article by worship leader Noel Richards in Christian Today.

September 2014

• Blog post: Decline of the Church of England - Update 2001-2012. A revised application of the Limited Enthusiasm Model to Church of England Attendance, based on data published 2014.

August 2014

• Blog post: Conversion - Hearts Strangely Warmed. On the meaning of the word "conversion" in the church growth models.
• New publications added: Model Building with Soft Variables; Model Behaviour and the Concept of Loop Impact.

January 2014

• Application of limited enthusiasm model to the Southern Baptist Convention USA 1980-2012 membership figures. Potential causes of its recent decline investigated. Blog Post.

November 2013

• George Carey and Church Decline. Analysis of the advice Lord George Carey, former Archbishop of Canterbury, gave to churches. Highlighted due to its misreporting in the secular media as "Church on the brink of extinction". November 2013 blog.

October 2013

• Application of Limited Enthusiasm Model of Church Growth to Church of England attendance data 2001-2011. Blog: The Decline of the Church of England. Web Page.

September 2013

• All six blogs on Welsh Outpouring as a PDF.
• Update on Welsh Outpouring 2013. Update after 5 months of the Outpouring and Wales for Christ conference.
• Liberal and Conservative Churches Part 1 Use of system dynamics to explore the impact of liberal theology on church decline based on quotes by Rick Warren of Saddleback Church and Russell D. Moore of the Southern Baptist Convention. Additional ideas from a medievalist blogger Magistra et Mater. September 2013 Blog.

July 2013

• The Singing that Ended the Dance An incident from the Hebridean Revival 1949-53 in the light of the limited enthusiasm model of church growth, inspired by sermon on day 88 of Welsh Outpouring, Victory Church, Cwmbran. July 2013 Blog.
• A Bad Night for Foxes: A Meeting at the Cwmbran Outpouring A description of one unusual meeting in the Cwmbran Outpouring, day 88. July 2013 Blog.

June 2013

• Are We in Revival - Wales 2013? A view of the Cwmbran Outpouring set in the context of 50 years of Charismatic Renewal and the nature of revival. June 2013 Blog.
• The construction of the Effective Believer's Model which extends the Limited Enthusiasm Model of Church Growth to include the soft variable Spiritual Life. Spiritual life is generated by the enthusiasts which in turn enhances their effectiveness in conversion. With results.
• The Spread of Humanism. Evaluating the way the spread of Humanism could be measured and modelled within the UK, in the light of the Girl Guides dropping "God" from their promise, June 2013. Blog.
• When the Presence of God Persists ... A first look at the Effective Enthusiasts Model of church growth. In this model the spiritual life of the church influences the effectiveness of the enthusiasts in their activity to convert people. In turn they influence the spiritual life of the church through prayer, seeking God's presence and other spiritual activities. This post investigates what happens when the presence of God persists and comes out of experiences in the current outpouring of the Spirit in Cwmbran, Wales, June 2013. Blog.

May 2013

• A Second Visit to the Cwmbran Outpouring? Some more experiences of the revival event in Victory Church Wales UK, its genuineness as a revival, how it fits with church growth models, May 2013. Blog.
• Contagion in Cwmbran: A New "Wales Outpouring"? A personal experience of the revival event in Victory Church Wales UK, May 2013. Blog.

January 2013

• "Church Growth in Britain" - A Review. A review of the book Church Growth in Britain by David Goodhew, 2012, Ashgate publishing. Blog.

December 2012

• Census 2011 - Initial thoughts on Religious Adherence. Blog

November 2012

• Women Bishops and Church Growth. Blog

August 2012

• The original paper on the limited enthusiasm model of church growth has been updated, Mathematical Modeling of Church Growth: An Update, and can be downloaded.

July 2012

• Dealing with Church Decline. Some comments on the review of the Church in Wales, July 2012.

April 2012

• Description and results from the migration model: an extension of the limited enthusiasm model.

March 2012

• Added new simulations, Church of England 1978-1998, New Churches 1990-2000, from Hayward 2005.

Dec 2011

• Added new blog post: Enthusiasm and the Presence of God.

Sept 2011

• Online simulations for the General Limited Enthusiasm Model, and for the Limited Enthusiasm Model with Migration.
• Added new blog post: The Strength of the Christian Church in the USA.

June 2011

• A description of the Membership model and its results added.
• More results from the Discipleship Model; Principles, Experiments. The construction of the model is re-organised.
• The slides from the June Church Growth Cafe are available. The Conversionist/Discipleship model is renamed to Discipleship model and details of the meetings updated.

December 2010

• The first set of results from the discipleship model has its own page.
• A version of the Discipleship model in Stella 9.1 made available to run online. The downloads page updated.

November 2010

• Details of the Church Growth Model Building Series now has its own page.
• Discipleship Model added.
• A version of the limited enthusiasm model in Stella 9.1 made available to run online. The downloads page updated.

October 2010

• Added material to the Church Growth Model Building Series for session 4. On the Articles page.
• Added blog post on Community & Relationships in Church Growth.

September 2010

• Added blog posts on types of church and the use of "convert" in the church growth models.
• Added material to the Church Growth Model Building Series for sessions 2 and 3. On the Articles page.
• Updated contemporary revival-like movements.

August 2010

• Added conference paper: Church Growth via Enthusiasts and Renewal.

June 2010

• Added "An introduction to model building in System Dynamics". Notes in the form of: powerpoint presentation, or as PDF.

May 2010

• Added Wesley's Law of the Decay of Pure Religion.
• Added Laws of Church Growth.

March 2010

• Added a Blog post, "Church Planting "
• Added a Blog post, "Mexican Wave"
• Started an ongoing programme of updating references in order to provide support for church growth models. Short summaries are given on papers to indicate the nature of that support. Started with sociology of religion references.

January 2010

• Added a Blog post, "Revival with a Smile", on the New Mystics, a charismatic group that appear to be in the early stages of rapid growth.

August 2009

• Added a Blog post on Mathematics and History, and its connection with church growth.

June 2009

• Added a link to Effective Evangelisation, slides from a talk given at "Challenge to Change: exploring strategies for an effective Church in a post-Christian landscape", June 2009.

May 2009

• Added a link to the new blog for church growth modelling churchgrowthmodelling.blogspot.com

April 2009

• Home page updated to give brief details of all models currently being developed.

March 2009

• An article on Flagship Churches and their role in generating enthusiasts.

Feb 2009

• Conference presentations updated with Modelling Church Growth - Micro and Macro Models , presented at various meetings 2007-2009.

June 2008

• Article on the Alpha Course updated to include recent figures and an apologetic on comments made about the connection between Large Group Awareness Training and Church Growth Modelling.

May 2008

• References updated.

May 2006

• Articles updated with "Can the Church be Tipped into Growth?"

Sept 2005

• Pages added for the renewal model and its results.

April 2005

• Added references of other work using mathematics in church growth and social diffusion.

December 2004

• Tipping the Church into Growth. Article explaining the principles and results of the church growth models using the concept of tipping points. Aimed at pastors and other Christians with an interest in church growth but little knowledge of mathematics.

September 2004

• Overhead slides with notes for talk: Church Growth via Enthusiasts, presented at OR46 "The Annual Conference of the Operational Research Society", York, 7-9 Sept 2004.

August 2004

• To show that Church growth modelling is not just an academic work but is set in the context of the need for revival two web pages of resources used for those who wish to pray for revival: The Revival We Need, Reasons to Pray for Revival.

July 2004

• Timeline of the first two weeks of the 1904-5 Welsh Revival. The period covered by Evan Robert's first mission to Loughor.
• Web page on the Renewal Model, an extension of the general limited enthusiasm model, together with some preliminary results.
• Update on Timeline of the background to the 1904-5 Welsh Revival, version 2.3.

June 2004

• A paper "General model of Church Growth" accepted for publication in the Journal of Mathematical Sociology

November 2003

• Article by J Edwin Orr: The Outpouring of the Spirit in Revival and Awakening and its Issue in Church Growth. Republished by British Church Growth Association. Available here for download in A4 format. By kind permission of BCGA.
• Article on the Background to the 1904-5 Welsh revival, examined in the light of the church growth models.
  Timeline of the background to the 1904-5 Welsh revival.

October 2003

• Two articles extracted from some of the publications:
• Enthusiasts in the Church Growth Models
• The Alpha Course - An Example of Church Growth Through Enthusiasts.

May 2003

• A new page giving a summary of results. The most important results of the other web pages and papers in a form that can be read ( and hopefully understood!) in ten minutes.

March 2003

• Page on long term decline. Example of Church of England.

January 2003

• Page on long term growth (under Details of results). Explains equilibrium, revival-growth threshold, recurring growth and some application to churches in the the UK.

October 2002

• The first draft of the two talks given at the Annual Meeting of the Research Association/Society for the Scientific Study of Religion are now online in PDF form. They are converted from the Power Point masters with added notes:
• A Dynamical Model of Strictness and its Effect on Church Growth
• Revival or Extinction - An Application of Systems Dynamics to Church Attendance and Membership Data

July 2002

• This new site is an extended version of the original Church Growth Modelling site which is part of the research web pages of the Division of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Glamorgan. The original site no longer exists. This new site will be more extensive than the academic one and provide information to help churches and Christians apply the results and to view the work in a spiritual and theological context.