This simulation is both an introduction to church growth modelling, and an introduction to the use of the system dynamics methodology. In this presentation, you will be introduced to stocks, flows, converters, connectors, feedback

The model was developed with system dynamics and implemented in “Stella Architect” produced by ISEE Systems. The online simulation is hosted by ISEE systems.

Follow the link, which will open in a separate window:

  • Hayward, J. (1999). Mathematical Modeling of Church Growth, Journal of Mathematical Sociology. 23(4), 255-292. The first paper on the limited enthusiasm model of church growth. Application to the 1904/5 Welsh Revival.
  • Hayward, J. (2002). A Dynamical Model of Church Growth and its Application to Contemporary Revivals. Review of Religious Research, 43(3),218-241. System Dynamics version of the limited enthusiasm model.
  • Hayward, J. (2005). A General Model of Church Growth and Decline. Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 29(3), 177-207. The definitive version of the Limited Enthusiasm Model, including births, deaths and reversion.
  • Hayward, J. (2010). Church Growth via Enthusiasts and Renewal. 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Seoul, South Korea.
  • Kelley, D.M. (1986) [1972]. Why conservative churches are growing: A study in the sociology of religion. Mercer University Press.