Church Growth Models

  • Enthusiasts in the Church Growth Models. What is an enthusiast? How do they drive the growth of the church?
  • The Alpha Course – An Example of Church Growth Through Enthusiasts. An application of the church growth models to the Alpha Course of Holy Trinity Brompton, London.
  • Tipping the Church into Growth. This article explains the principles and results of the church growth models using the concept of tipping points. It is aimed at pastors and other Christians with an interest in church growth but little knowledge of mathematics.
  • Flagship Churches. A flagship church is a church that is successful and can reproduce itself through church planting or through influencing others.  The article proposes that a flagship church is one that can generate enthusiasts, using ideas from the Limited Enthusiasm Model of church growth. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2186.8246.
  • Anglican Church Decline in the West. Two blogs on the decline of the Anglican church showing that the Church of England is declining slower than its sister denominations. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3761.2242.

Welsh Revival 1904-5

  • How Did the Welsh Revival of 1904-5 Start? An examination of the background to the 1904/5 Welsh revival in the light of the limited enthusiasm model of church growth. The article is based on source material summarised in the timeline of the background of the revival.
  • Timeline of the Background to the Welsh Revival 1904-5. Notes on the build-up to the 1904/5 Welsh Revival based on the various books available, including dates, where possible.
  • Timeline of the First Two Weeks of the Welsh Revival 1904-5. Notes on the first two weeks of 1904/5 Welsh Revival based on the various books available, including dates, where possible. This coincides with Evan Roberts’ first mission to Loughor but also has a few brief references to Rhos, Ammanford and Cardiganshire. The emphasis is on how the revival spread and lines of influence.

Contemporary Revival Movements

  • The Welsh Outpouring 2013. Six blogs on the Cwmbran Outpouring at Victory Church. The movement is examined in the light of church growth models and past revivals.
  • Contemporary Revivals: A review of potential revival and social movements within the church since 1960.

Church Growth Model Building Series – Discipleship Model

Notes developed as part of a series on building church growth models hosted by the Cymru Institute for Contemporary Christianity (CICC). More details of the series are on the Church Growth Model Building Series page.

  • How to Use System Dynamics to Build a Model Slides on PDF.
  • Results for the supply of, and demand for, discipleship Slides on PDF
  • Construction of Causal Loops for the control of discipleship Slide in PDF
  • Outline of Discipleship Model – Final Version Slide in PDF


  • Defence of Church Growth Modelling. Written at the same time as the first published paper on the mathematics of church growth (Hayward 1999). This article attempts to justify why modelling church growth is a legitimate exercise without jeopardizing the Biblical beliefs of the Christian church.
  • Laws of Church Growth. Scholarly and anecdotal “laws” of church growth. Both to inspire and inform.
  • Origin of Wesley’s Law. Some background to Wesley’s Law of the decay of pure religion.