Three months ago, the Bible Society published a report that provided evidence of increased church attendance in the UK [1]. Although this increase is not reflected in official church attendance figures, surveys and personal knowledge suggest a more optimistic view of people’s engagement with the church. They termed it “The Quiet Revival”. Since then, numerous articles have been written [2], including mine, which uses system dynamics to explain why an initial increase in church attendance may not be immediately reflected in official statistics [3].

Recently, David Robertson urged caution regarding the Bible Society’s claims, as they have confused an increase of interest in Christianity with the revival work of the Holy Spirit, which involves repentance and conversion [4]. The survey data may indicate the former but cannot show the latter. To clarify any potential confusion over the concept of revival, David gave five principles to help discern reports of revival. His first caught my attention: “You don’t measure revival by data”.

In many people’s minds, revivals are about rapid increases in church attendance. As I will show, this view of revival stems from the wrong standpoint. Increases in church numbers are the result of revival, not the revival itself. Sometimes, these increases are rapid, but for other revivals, they are slower and sustained over many years.

Definition of Revival

What, then, is meant by the word “revival” in a Christian context? How is the word defined? What does the Bible say? This approach is somewhat tricky, as the word “revival” does not appear in the New Testament at all! As far as I can tell, the word first gained popularity in the early 18th century among American, Scottish and English evangelicals in the context of “Revivals of Religion” [5].  By contrast, scripture refers to the work of the Holy Spirit, using terms like “pour out” and “fall upon”, expressions extensively used by 18th-century evangelical writers with regard to God’s work among them.

Many people have attempted to define the concept of revival. Consider this one by Richard Owen Roberts

An extraordinary movement of the Holy Spirit producing extraordinary results [6, p. 16]

Roberts is clear that revival is a work of God within people and that it is extraordinary. Revival is what God does in us, over and above what He normally does. Roberts emphasises character change rather than the number of “decisions for Christ”. There is a change in the spiritual life of those who are converted, or revived [6, p. 24]. The revived people then become instruments of the revival, being used to revive others. My church growth models are based on this principle, where I refer to the revived Christians as “enthusiasts” [7]. In these models, I can produce numerical results for church attendance. However, the revival is the work of the Holy Spirit in the souls of people, not the numbers in the church.

Holy Spirit logo

Thus, Robert’s definition of revival aligns with David Robertson’s statement if “data” refers to church attendance figures. Increases in church attendance do not measure revival because revival is a work of God in an individual, not a change in church numbers.

Quantifying Revival

However, Robert’s definition raises a question: What does he mean by “extraordinary”? It suggests that there is an ordinary state for the church, that is, for a person’s spiritual condition. Such a normal spiritual state would involve growth in grace and an increased knowledge of God among believers, all of which are works of the Holy Spirit. Revival would be something the Spirit does over and above this norm. Robert’s statement only makes sense if a person’s spiritual state can be quantified! Back to data again, though not church attendance.

Even though revival is defined as a work of God within a person’s soul, it still requires quantification. Consider some of D Martyn Lloyd-Jones’ many descriptions of revival:

  • A period of unusual blessing and activity in the life of the Christian Church [8, p. 99].  
  • They immediately become aware of his (God’s) presence and of his power in a manner that they have never known before [8, p. 100].
  • I would define a revival as a large number, a group of people, being baptised by the Holy Spirit at the same time [9, p. 55].
  • In a sense it (revival) is a repetition of Pentecost [8, pp. 100, 200].

An “unusual” blessing implies something greater than usual, a measure. “Never known before”, again a comparison is made. A “large number baptised by the Spirit”, the quantification relates to the number of people involved and their experience.

“Repetition of Pentecost” is a description rooted in the Bible, but it implies that what is happening among Christians can be compared with Pentecost – a measurement. Indeed, the apostle Peter does just that in Acts 11:16 when he compares what happens to a group of Gentiles with his earlier experience at Pentecost: “As I began to speak, the Holy Spirit came on them as he had come on us at the beginning.” Peter had experienced many remarkable works of the Holy Spirit between chapters 2 and 9, but the events of chapters 10 and 11 are even more remarkable – a measurement.

Can Revival be Measured?

It would seem impossible to define revival without some degree of quantification. Sprague says that a revival is a “wonderful effusion of the Spirit” [10. p. 2], and “Effusions of the Spirit will be yet more frequent and powerful” [10. p. 6]. For Jonathan Edwards, pastor, theologian, philosopher and revivalist, revivals are “remarkable communications of the Spirit of God” [11, p. 30]. Iain H Murray notes that “what happens in revival is not miraculously different from the regular experience of the church. The difference lies in degree, not in kind.” [12, p. 23].

Thus, in principle, revival can be measured if you look in the right place – that is, in the hearts of the people whom the Holy Spirit has come upon. However, can these effects be practically measured?

Soft Variables and Data

In system dynamics, we use the concept of soft variables to describe factors that we know are important in a model but are difficult to measure [13]. For example, in a business, the quality of customer support has a large influence on sales. However, how large is large? How can the quality of customer support be given a number? The spiritual state of a person, or of a church, is also a soft variable. It is tempting to leave it out of a model, but to quote Jay Forrester, the founder of System Dynamics: “To omit such variables is equivalent to saying they have zero effect – probably the only value that is known to be wrong!” [14, p. 57].

Therefore, the spiritual state of a church needs to be estimated to determine if a revival is occurring, which will involve gathering data. However, that data is unlikely to be numerical. Instead, we look for events that make spiritual changes in people.

“Measuring” Pentecost

For example, how do we know that Pentecost was an outpouring of the Spirit (Acts 2)? What evidence does Luke provide? Firstly, there were the changes in the disciples. They were spontaneously praising God, evidence that they were unusually aware of His presence. They acquired a boldness that changed their behaviour. This change went beyond the day. In the following months, they preached in very hostile situations. They were able to do this because they were confident that Christ was with them, giving them a zeal for seeing people saved. Indeed, they wanted to ensure that what had happened to them was passed on to others.

Secondly, there was the work of God among the crowd. Initially, these people mocked the disciples, but by the end, they were cut to the heart and convicted of their sins. But they did not stop there. They went on to be taught by the apostles and discipled in the faith. They changed their beliefs to align with the truths of the gospel. I will be bold here. If anyone comes under conviction of sin and turns to the Bible for help, they will face the issue of what it means to be right with God. If they then turn to Christ, they will inevitably come to believe the evangelical truths taught in scripture [15].

I suggest that these Pentecost events provide a means to determine whether revival is taking place. Although they cannot be easily enumerated, we know that their value is not zero! Of course, if the Holy Spirit falls on us, we will know by direct experience that they have value!

Tentative Definition of Revival

Based on the above, I will revise Robert’s definition of revival.

A revival is an extraordinary work of the Holy Spirit that results in (1) conviction of sin, (2) an awareness of God, (3) a zeal to see people saved, (4) the Holy Spirit’s work being passed on to new converts, (5) growth in discipleship, (6) a love of the evangelical doctrines of scripture.

The definition is no longer snappy, but it spells out what Roberts meant by “extraordinary results” and encompasses the thoughts of the other writers mentioned above [16].

Results Occur in Different Degrees

Of course, we are dealing with the work of the Holy Spirit, who can move in unexpected ways. The results I have described are neither exhaustive nor necessarily occur in a specific causal order. In any given revival, they may be present in different degrees. There is considerable variety in revival, and it is unwise to be too prescriptive. Nevertheless, these works of God in the people revived provide a form of measure of the existence of a revival, even if their quantification is difficult and imprecise. A careful reading of historical accounts of revivals reveals that authors often use these results to justify the events as outpourings of the Spirit.

Revivals are Mixed

Although revivals are works of God, not everything that happens comes from Him. Some revivals are more mixed in terms of what is of God and what is of man, and this also requires careful measurement of the facts.

For example, the 1904/5 Welsh Revival saw remarkable spiritual events in churches, along with 100,000 added to the churches in twelve months. However, the revival had several flaws as highlighted by Iain H Murray [17, pp. 153-164]. For instance, Evan Roberts would often refrain from preaching in his services to encourage the direct work of the Spirit. Sadly, this confused people and probably quenched the Holy Spirit he was trying to encourage. Despite this, he was used by God to bring genuine revival. One of my all-time Christian heroes!

Evan Roberts
Evan Roberts

Likewise, Tom Lennie has tried to correct the contradictory events surrounding the Lewis revival, 1949-53 [18]. Duncan Campbell, another of my great heroes, was often prone to exaggeration and incorrectly recalling the revival events he participated in. Nevertheless, it was still a powerful revival. Thus, it follows that some method of measuring the spiritual events is necessary to distinguish the evidence of the Spirit’s outpouring from what is clearly wrong. A good reason to try to measure revival, provided we look in the right place.

Just because a revival has works of man that confuse the events does not mean it is not a revival from God. Revivals should not be dismissed because of human weakness when other evidence points to God. Nowhere is this more clearly seen than in the discussion of Pentecostalism. A glance through books on revival written in the twentieth century reveals hardly any mention of the early days of Pentecostalism as revival. I know why. They don’t like the methods used. However, if they judge revivals based on the spiritual works produced in human souls, as I discussed earlier, then I think they would be compelled to include Pentecostalism among the classic revivals, despite some of their unwise methods.

The Quiet Revival

Where does this leave the quiet revival? People are certainly talking about it both in person and online. News about it is spreading quickly. But where is the revival happening? Where are the people and churches being revived, so that people may determine whether remarkable works of God are taking place in people’s lives? How can we discern what is of God or of man? Clearly, more information is needed.

I indicated in my last post that the YouGov surveys may be measuring a general increase in identification with Christianity [3]. This increase is not a spiritual revival in itself, although it may well precede one. I fear that the popularity of the Quiet Revival narrative reflects a church desperate to cling on to any bit of encouragement in the face of what has been a sustained collapse in the Christian church in the West. Indeed, the fact that this news can be regarded as a revival without critical discernment comes from the poor spiritual state of Western Christianity in general and evangelicalism in particular.

A Revival Testimony

Perhaps we can use this discussion about the Quiet Revival to remind people of what a genuine, God-given revival entails. In particular, what God does in us when he chooses to favour us with an outpouring of the Spirit. If I were to recommend one book, I would suggest “I Saw the Welsh Revival” by David Matthews [19]. It is a personal account of what happened to a fine, upstanding Christian man who felt that the revival was for other people, not for him.

With my back to the pulpit, I witnessed a sight that made me feel faint. Confronting and surrounding me was a mass of people, with faces aglow with a divine radiance, certainly not of this earth. For one brief moment my faith staggered, and criticism arose in my mind. But it soon vanished. Critical analysis could not survive such a dynamic atmosphere [19, p. 35].

Where in the Quiet Revival is this “dynamic atmosphere”? I hope it is somewhere.

Chapter 9 is priceless for anyone who thinks revival is about numbers rather than soul work.

Petrified with fear, I wondered what was going to happen next. I became conscious of one thing that I was sitting perilously near the “fire” [19, p. 64].

Heavenly Father, I pray we would know what it is to be drawn into the fire of your Holy Spirit, grasp how wide and long and high and deep is the love of Christ, and be filled with the fullness of God, (Eph 3:18-19). That is how revival is measured.

References

  1. The Quiet Revival: Gen Z leads Rise in Church Attendance. The Bible Society, April 2025.
  2. See references in [3].
  3. The Quiet Revival – Why is it not Louder? Church Growth Modelling, 28 April 2025.
  4. The ‘Quiet Revival’ in the UK, David Robertson, Christian Today, 10 June 2025.
  5. Revival is a Work of God (Sermon Extract), Church Growth Modelling, 5 July 2022.
  6. Revival, Richard Owen Roberts, Revival. International Awakening Press.
  7. What is an Enthusiast? Church Growth Modelling, 1 August 2024.
  8. Revival, DM Lloyd-Jones, Marshall Pickering, 1986.
  9. Joy Unspeakable, DM Lloyd-Jones, Kingsway, 1995.
  10. Lectures on Revivals of Religion, WB Sprague, New York, 1833. Reprinted by the University of Michigan M Library.
  11. The Works of Jonathan Edwards, Banner of Truth 1974 [1834]. From Edwards’ book, The History of the Work of Redemption.
  12. Revival and Revivalism, IH Murray, Banner of Truth, 1994.
  13. Model Building with Soft Variables, J Hayward, RA Jeffs, L Howells, KS Evans, 32nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Delft, Netherlands, 2014.
  14. Industrial Dynamics. JW Forrester, Pegasus Communications, MA: Waltham, 1961.
  15. There is a reason the revivals of the 18th century are called evangelical revivals. The revival included a recovery of evangelical beliefs as the true expression of the whole sweep of the Bible’s teaching. It makes no sense to discuss revival without reference to what is believed, as those beliefs are an inevitable result of the Holy Spirit’s work.
  16. Iain H Murray has a more extended definition of revival: A revival is an outpouring of the Holy Spirit, brought about by the intercession of Christ, resulting in new life in the churches and a widespread movement of grace among the unconverted [17, pp. 23-24]. It would be difficult to fault this definition. My definition is more specific to help modelling and identifying revivals.
  17. Pentecost Today, IH Murray, Banner of Truth, 1998.
  18. Island Aflame, T Lennie, Christian Focus, 2023.
  19. I Saw the Welsh Revival, David Matthews, Ambassador, 2004 [1957]. Page numbers quoted from an earlier Pioneer Books edition. The text is available online.
 

Tags: , , , ,