The primary resources for church growth modelling are published papers, especially:
- A General Model of Church Growth and Decline. Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 29(3), 177-207, 2005. The definitive version of the Limited Enthusiasm Model.
- A Dynamical Model of Church Growth and its Application to Contemporary Revivals. Review of Religious Research, 43(3),218-241, March 2002. A revised version of the paper at the Houston 2000 conference is below.
- Mathematical Modeling of Church Growth, Journal of Mathematical Sociology. 23(4), 255-292, 1999. An updated version of the paper in the light of more recent work in System Dynamics. Original in the journal. See also the System Dynamics version.
These papers are peer-reviewed within the mathematical modelling and sociological communities.
All my publications can be found on the PUBLICATIONS PAGE
Introduction to Church Growth Models
The online simulation Building a Church Growth Model talks through the basics of modelling church growth. It uses user-friendly system dynamics diagrams as a substitute for mathematics.
The article: Tipping the Church into Growth, gives an overview of the model and its implications for church leaders and workers.
The church growth models are built on previous work in mathematical modelling, system dynamics and sociology.
See the REFERENCES PAGES for a literature guide.
The church growth models are examples of dynamic modelling. See the MODELLING PAGE for the basics of model construction.