Journal publications, conferences, technical reports on church growth and other modelling.

Journal Publications – Church Growth


Conferences – Church Growth

  • The Growth of Islam in the UK: A System Dynamics Perspective. Presented at “The Annual Meeting of the Scientific Study of Religion”, Indianapolis, USA, November 2014. (With Ahmed N and Hassan A.) An application of the Limited Enthusiasm Model of Church Growth to Islam in England & Wales.
  • System Dynamics: A Tool for Investigating Church and Religious Growth. Presented at “The Annual Meeting of the Scientific Study of Religion”, Boston, USA, November 2013. Powerpoint slides. How to build a church growth model in system dynamics; applications to Church of England and Southern Baptist Convention data; modelling the effects of church strictness.
  • Church Growth via Enthusiasts and Renewal. Presented at the 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Seoul, South Korea, July 2010. A model where enthusiasts are generated through renewing existing believers in addition to conversion. Model displays accelerated growth and critical mass.
  • An Introduction to Model Building in System Dynamics. May 2010. Powerpoint presentation. Developed as part of a series on building church growth models hosted by the Cymru Institute for Contemporary Christianity,
  • Effective Evangelisation. Presented at “Challenge to Change: exploring strategies for an effective Church in a post-Christian landscape”, June 2009.
  • Modelling Church Growth – Micro and Macro Models. Presented at various meetings: COST MP0801 WG1 Competition of Beliefs, Paderborn, Germany, Jan 2009; Wales Mathematics Colloquium, Gregynog Wales, May 2008; SD+50, London School of Economics, December 2007.
  • Church Growth via Enthusiasts. Presented at OR46 “The Annual Conference of the Operational Research Society”, York, 7-9 September 2004.
  • Revival or Extinction – An Application of Systems Dynamics to Church Attendance and Membership Data. Report presented at “The Annual Meeting of the Religious Research Association / Scientific Study of Religion”, Salt Lake City, Utah 1-3 November 2002.
  • A Dynamical Model of Strictness and its Effect on Church Growth. Report presented at “The Annual Meeting of the Religious Research Association / Scientific Study of Religion”, Salt Lake City, Utah 1-3 November 2002.
  • A Dynamical Model of Church Growth and Global Revival. Technical Report UG-M-00-4, presented at “The Annual Meeting for the Scientific Study of Religion”, Houston, Texas 18-21 October 2000.
  • Growth and Decline of Religious and Sub-cultural Groups. Presented at the 18th International System Dynamics Society, Bergen, Norway, July 2000.

Technical Reports


Popular Publications

  • Church Growth and Spiritual Life. (with L Howells.) Future First. April 2011, published by Brierley Consultancy.
  • Can the Church be Tipped into Growth? Quadrant May 2006, published by Christian Research.
  • Passing on the Faith. Quadrant March 2002, published by Christian Research.
  • Modelling Church Growth – Mathematically, Church Growth Digest, 23(1) pp.3-5, 2001. British Church Growth Association.
  • Church Growth – A Disease!! Quadrant September 2000, published by Christian Research.

Non-Church Growth Publications and Conferences

  • Hayward J. (2020). The Concept of Average Loop Impact as a System-Wide Measure of Feedback Dominance Analysis. arXiv repository https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.04103.
  • Polojärvi D.I., Gambardella P. & Hayward J. (2020). Understanding Evolutionary Societal Decision‐making for Sustainable Social Systems Engineering Purposes. In INCOSE International Symposium (Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 981-1000).
  • Hayward J., Jeffs R.A. & Roach P.A. (2020). A Supply and Demand Model of Political Party Growth. Presented at the 36th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Virtual Bergen, July 2020.
  • Hayward J. & Roach P.A.. (2019). The concept of force in population dynamics, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 531, 121736, DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.121736.
  • Gambardella P., Hayward J., Palmer E. & Polojärvi D.I. (2018), Approximating Network Dynamics in the Classic Maya Collapse, Presented at the 36th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Reykjavík, Iceland, August 2018.
  • Wyburn J. & Hayward J. (2018). An application of an analogue of the partition function to the evolution of diglossia, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 516,.447-463.. DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.10.047.
  • Hayward J. & Roach P.A. (2017). Newton’s Laws as an Interpretive Framework in System Dynamics. System Dynamics Review, 33(3-4), 183-218. DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1586.
  • Jeffs R.A., Hayward J., Roach P.A. & Wyburn J. (2016). Activist Model of Political Party Growth. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 442, 359-372. DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.09.002; arXiv:1509.07805. Physica A.
  • Hayward J. (2015). Newton’s Laws of System Dynamics. Presented at the 33rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Cambridge, MA, July 2015.
  • Hayward J. & Boswell G.P. (2014). Model Behaviour and the Concept of Loop Impact: A Practical Method. System Dynamics Review, 30(1), 29-57. DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1511
  • Hayward J., Jeffs R.A., Howells L. & Evans K.S. (2014). Model Building with Soft Variables: A Case Study on Riots. Presented at the 32nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Delft, Netherlands, July 2014. Poster version
  • Hayward J. (2012). Model Behavior and the Strengths of Causal Loops: Mathematical Insights and a Practical Method. Presented at the 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, St. Gallen, Switzerland, July 2012. A method for identifying understanding dominant feedback/causal loops which can be applied to church growth models.
  • Wyburn J. & Hayward J. (2010). A Model of Language-Group Interaction and Evolution Including Language Acquisition Planning, Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 34(3), 167-200.
  • Wyburn J. & Hayward J. (2009). OR and Language Planning: Modelling The Interaction Between Unilingual and Bilingual Populations, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 60(5), 626-636.
  • Wyburn J. & Hayward J. (2008). The Future of Bilingualism: An Application of the Baggs and Freedman Model, Journal of Mathematical Sociology 32(4), 267-284. Uses similar ideas to the church growth models.