The word “enthusiast” frequently appears in my models[1]. What is an enthusiast, and why are they important?

An enthusiast is a special type of Christian. They are believers who are actively involved in the conversion of people to the Christian faith. The enthusiast contacts an unbeliever, and, as a result of the contact, the unbeliever becomes a believer.

Why “Enthusiast”?

Why did I choose the word enthusiast to describe the Christian who helps bring unbelievers to faith? The word goes back a few hundred years and literally means “possessed by a god”. The Puritans used the word in a derogatory sense for people who took religious practices and experiences to extremes. We might now use the word “fanatic”. The word was aimed at people who believed they could receive messages directly from God or were excessively emotional about religious things.

In the 18th century, the word was used derogatorily to describe the early Methodists. However, these “enthusiasts” were the ones who were bold enough to spread the faith. Hence, my use of the word for those who could reproduce new believers.

Figure 1: John Wesley preaching. There were many other methodist preachers as explained by JC Ryle in Christian Leaders of the 18th Century (Banner of Truth).

In English, the meaning of the word has shifted over time. It was applied in wider secular situations and became a positive word, referring to people who are passionate and eager for their cause.

Who are the Enthusiasts?

In my models, the enthusiasts may be people who invite unbelievers to church or to an evangelistic meeting where they are converted. It is not necessarily the minister or evangelist who is the enthusiast; it is the person who invited the unbeliever. For example, at a Billy Graham meeting, the enthusiast is the Christian who invited their friend to the meeting, not Billy Graham.

It could be that the conversion comes from a sustained relationship between the enthusiast and the unbeliever. From the initial friendship, there may be some time before the unbelieving friend is converted. Nevertheless, this is still an example of a Christian passing on their faith[2].

Reproducibility

An enthusiast is a Christian who not only makes new Christians but also makes them another enthusiast. Thus, the more enthusiasts, the more conversions. The more conversions, the more enthusiasts are added to the church. This mechanism is a reinforcing loop, figure 2. The result is exponential growth in the number of enthusiasts in the absence of any restraining forces. The rectangles in Figure 2 represent the numbers in each category (called stocks). The pipe represents the rate of change in the stocks (called a flow).

Figure 2: Enthusiasts make more enthusiasts by converting unbelievers

Limited Enthusiasm

Enthusiasts do not remain enthusiastic indefinitely. They cease spreading the faith and become inactive believers, Figure 3. The model has two types of Christians in the church: enthusiasts and inactive believers. The latter play no part in contacting and converting unbelievers, though they may be very active in other church activities.  

Figure 3: Enthusiasts eventually lose their effectiveness and become inactive

The limited enthusiastic period introduces a balancing feedback loop, B2. All enthusiasts are affected. Thus, the more enthusiasts, the more cease being enthusiasts. Consequently, there are fewer enthusiasts. The balancing loop B2 opposes the growth loop R. The growth in enthusiasts is reduced, but not the growth in the church as the ex-enthusiasts remain in the church as inactive believers

On its own, a balancing feedback loop, such as B2, leads to a negative exponential decline in the absence of any growth forces. Combined with the reinforcing loop R, the result is a smaller exponential growth rate, assuming loop R is more powerful than B2.

Why Do Enthusiasts Stop Spreading the Faith?

There are at least three reasons: Network exhaustion, Distraction, and a decline in personal enthusiasm.

Network Exhaustion

Enthusiasts recruit through their network of friends, relatives and work colleagues. However, few people have an ever-expanding network of such people. Eventually, they run out of people with whom they can witness and the network is exhausted.

It may be that everyone in the enthusiast’s network has been converted. More likely, some have been converted, and the remainder are immune to further pressure to attend church or engage in spiritual conversations. Often, a new convert’s old friends may drift away as they pick up new friends in the church. Perhaps the old friends are no longer comfortable with the new convert and their new religious ways. Perhaps the new convert does not even want their old unbelieving friends.

Distraction

Churches do not just recruit or evangelise. Churches have many jobs and roles that need volunteers. After a while, new converts find other work to do in churches, meetings to attend, pastoral work, and social programmes to staff, for example. The covert can no longer afford the time to evangelise.

In periods of intense growth, the pastoral demands of dealing with new converts prevent ministers and church workers from spending as much time on evangelism as they might like and thus, their recruitment potential drops.

Decline in Personal Enthusiasm

A believer can run out of enthusiasm for recruitment. Instead, they settle into a more subdued version of belief where the zeal to see new converts has declined to the point of inactivity. They may have forgotten why they converted from unbelief to belief. They now have no desire to see others converted. Perhaps they have gained status within the church and lost the real reasons why they joined in the first place. Any enthusiasm they now have is centred on their own advancement within the church.

In non-strict churches, the Christian lifestyle is so close to the unbelieving world that the new convert quickly sees little point in attempting to win people to the church. Believers are so similar to unbelievers that they have little to offer, and so stop seeking converts. Conversely, believers may find the church so enjoyable that their enthusiasm is for their own experience of it, or of God, rather than to see others converted!

Finally, it may be that the church has not lived up to expectations, and the believer has lost enthusiasm for anything to do with the beliefs. Instead, they have settled into a nominal church life.

Wesley’s Law

Many of these reasons are summed up in what Dean Kelley called Wesley’s Law of the Decay of Pure Religion. Quoting from Max Weber’s record of John Wesley’s words: “Wherever riches have increased, the essence of religion has decreased in the same proportion.” Weber then finished the Wesley quote with: “Is there no way to prevent this decay of pure religion?”[3] My summary of the law is, “Taking up the religion has produced benefits which make missionary zeal too costly to engage in.” Thus, good evangelism becomes a victim of its own success. Good churches have the unintended consequence of hindering their people’s evangelism.

Capacity Resistance

As unbelievers are converted, their numbers become fewer. Consequently, it becomes harder for enthusiasts to contact unbelievers. Typically, an enthusiast will find a greater proportion of Christians in their network and a smaller proportion of unbelievers. Thus, on average, conversions go down. This process is called capacity resistance, as the conversion process is resisted the closer the church numbers get to that of the population.

Capacity resistance is represented in the model by a balancing loop, B1, on the unbelievers, Figure 4. As the pool of unbelievers shrinks, conversions decrease.

Figure 4: Enthusiasts find it harder to make new converts the more the pool of unbelievers is depleted

There are now two balancing loops opposing the growth of the enthusiasts. Thus, if conversion, R, is seen as a force producing exponential growth, the balancing loops B1 and B2 are forces resisting that growth. Their combination prevents the church from converting the whole of society as the enthusiast’s effectiveness diminishes in a finite population. This model is called the Limited Enthusiasm Model.

Results

Figure 5 shows an example of a growing church within a population of 10,000 people. This scenario represents the start of a revival when two believers become enthusiasts. These enthusiasts begin to witness to unbelievers, and conversions follow as they pass their enthusiasm and effectiveness on to the new converts

Figure 5: Results of the Limited Enthusiasm Model. Left-hand axis: Church and Unbelievers. Right-hand axis: Enthusiasts.

As the number of enthusiasts grows, the church grows, and the number of unbelievers shrinks. However, the exponential growth of enthusiasts ceases about 26 months, long before the church stops growing, figure 5. This is point in time where the effects of loops B1 and B2 counteract the reinforcing loop R. This change of behaviour indicates that the revival will subsequently come to an end.

The growth of enthusiasts continues but at a slower rate until they peak at 39 months, a value of 61 enthusiasts, figure 5. This is the point in time where the rate of enthusiasts’ loss balances the rate of conversions. Eventually, the number of enthusiasts declines to zero, and the church growth is limited to 2,300 believers. A wonderful revival! However, the church is well short of the total population converted.

The revival has ended because the believers’ enthusiasm is limited in duration, and their effect on a shrinking pool of unbelievers is decreasing. I originally developed this model to show that revivals could end for natural reasons, not because of any mistakes made by the church or resistance by revival opponents.

Reproduction Potential

The effectiveness of the enthusiasts is measured by their “reproduction potential”, also called the R number. This number represents the number of converts one enthusiast could make before their enthusiasm runs out, given that all the population are unbelievers. Measures to increase this reproduction potential have a larger effect than any other strategy.

Questions

  1. What fraction of a population does a church have effective influence over? If a church is in a town of 10,000 people, does a church of 250 people have meaningful contact with all that number? If contacts are with only a subset of the population, then the church will be less effective in seeing growth as capacity resistance will be stronger. Contact within the population is crucial. Does your church have contact with all of the population in your community?
  2. Do all the new contacts become enthusiasts? If not, the church’s growth will be restricted because its ability to reproduce enthusiasts will be diminished. Good training and discipleship for new converts are essential. Do you disciple new converts?
  3. In the model, I assumed that people mix homogeneously. That is, there is no deliberate targeting of unbelievers in relationships. Can the church be more intentional in contacting unbelievers? If so, this strategy could help improve the church’s growth. What is your evangelism strategy? Do you value contact with unbelievers?
  4. What could your church do to encourage people to be enthusiasts? What could you do to make a church a place where enthusiasts feel at home? Revivals can end because enthusiasts are perceived as a threat by other Christians and are either stifled or ejected.
  5. In revival, there is a large and often sudden increase in an enthusiast’s reproduction potential. Do you and your church desire revival, an outpouring of the Holy Spirit? Do you make it a priority in prayer?

References and Notes

  1. See the papers :
    Hayward J. (2005) A General Model of Church Growth and Decline. Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 29(3), 177-207.
    Hayward J. (1999) Mathematical Modeling of Church Growth, Journal of Mathematical Sociology. 23(4), 255-292.
    Limited Enthusiasm Conversion Model
    Interactive Limited Enthusiasm Model
  2. These mechanisms are discussed in Hayward, 1999, 2005 and the interactive model in [1] above.
  3. Kelley D. (1986). Why Conservative Churches are Growing: A Study in the Sociology of Religion. Mercer University Press.
    Weber M. (1920). The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, OUP, chapter 5.
    Kelley quotes Weber accurately. However, Weber cites a version of Wesley’s works which has revised the evangelist’s material. See my attempts to reconstruct Wesley’s original words.
 

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