Results of the Limited Enthusiasm Model with Renewal
Renewal is the process that turns existing inactive believers into enthusiasts.
In addition to the basic principles of revival growth, additional principles govern revival growth assisted by the presence of renewal:
- Renewal can help avoid church extinction.
- Renewal can promote revival growth.
- Revival growth from renewal may be delayed.
- Small things make a big difference.
- Growth through renewal needs a critical mass of enthusiasts and church members.
The term “revival growth” refers to a rapid exponential growth in the number of churchgoers and enthusiasts. It is similar to the epidemic phase of the spread of an infectious disease.
Renewal Can Avoid Church Extinction
The Limited Enthusiasm with Demographics model established that if the enthusiasts’ reproduction potential was below the extinction threshold, the church would eventually disappear due to its losses. Such a church was not reproducing enthusiasts well enough for them to survive, a situation made more challenging by losses. To rectify the situation, the church would either have to stem losses (though this may not be enough) or increase its reproduction potential.
However, the renewal model shows there is a third option – renew existing believers and make them enthusiasts, perhaps for the first time.
Figure 1 shows a church with a hopelessly inadequate reproduction potential that is declining rapidly (curve 2). The reproduction potential is so low that even stemming losses would not avoid extinction. Introducing renewal (curve 1) shows the church growing steadily, even though the reproduction potential of new converts remains inadequate. The extra supply of enthusiasts from existing church members not only increases the pool of enthusiasts but also provides enough converts for growth.
For many churches, renewal—bringing their members back to life—is a better option than trying to make their new converts better evangelists. In this sense, Renewal, not Evangelism, is the key to Church Growth.
Renewal Can Promote Revival Growth
Renewal can also turn moderate growth into revival growth. The church in Figure 2 is more or less in equilibrium (curve 2). Its reproduction potential is above the extinction threshold but under the revival growth threshold. Introducing renewal results in dramatic growth (curve 1), even though the reproduction potential from converts remains unchanged. The church stabilises at a much higher equilibrium value. Often, revivals come from renewal movements within churches, the reviving work starting among existing believers first.
Revival Growth from Renewal may be Delayed
Although renewal can lead to revival growth, it may be a long time before rapid growth starts, perhaps more than a generation. Figure 3 shows a church with sufficient renewal to offset an inadequate reproduction potential. Although there has been a small amount of growth over almost 150 years, it has not resulted in immediate rapid growth. However, the growth then speeds up and becomes dramatic and sudden – revival growth. Yet, there has been no change in parameters. The same work of God in the individual has moved from slow growth to revival growth. Numerically, the revival began after 150 years, yet spiritually it has been going on all along.
Clearly, renewal movements should not be dismissed just because they do not see immediate growth in the church. Methodism started as a renewal movement within the Church of England in the 1730s. Although there were numerous outbreaks of revival during that century, the size of Methodism and the rest of the Christian church was still moderate by the end of the century. The revival had not produced dramatic growth. Most of the growth occurred in the first 50 years of the 19th century, well after the first generation had gone. Revivals, especially those that come from renewal movements, can start small.
A renewal movement in the UK started in the 1960s. Although the church’s spiritual life was affected, the renewal did not bring substantial growth. Even in the 1990s, though there were many renewed congregations, overall church numbers were still down. However, the movement gave rise to new denominations that continue to grow.
Small Things Make a Big Difference
A small change in the amount of renewal in the church cannot only avoid extinction or bring revival growth but can also make a large change in the church’s final outcome. This is especially true when the church’s reproduction potential is inadequate, and it relies on renewal to make up for its lack of enthusiasts. To quote Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point, “small things make a big difference.”
Figure 4 shows a church whose renewal potential has increased by less than 2%. What would have been a slow extinction is transformed into slow growth, followed by a rapid revival—the difference between an extinct church and a church over 50% of the community. Small and persistent renewal movements should not be despised; they could just be enough to tip the church into dramatic growth.
Critical Mass
When renewal is used to compensate for an inadequate reproduction potential, there is no guarantee that a church will turn from decline to growth. In addition to having renewal, it must also be of sufficient size and have enough enthusiasts to tip it into growth. For reproduction and renewal potentials of given values, critical masses of believers and enthusiasts are needed for growth to occur.
Figure 5 shows the critical mass for enthusiasts in a church. The lower three curves show the initial number of enthusiasts below the critical mass. For the upper three curves, the initial value is above. Clearly, only those that start with a sufficient number of enthusiasts see growth. A similar effect occurs in the number of believers in the church.
Thus, renewal is more effective if enthusiasts are concentrated together in one place. Likewise, renewal is more effective in larger churches, although this must be balanced against possible increased opposition – not included in the renewal model.
Again, for a small change in the number of enthusiasts just taking it above the critical mass, there is a considerable change in outcome in the church. With renewal, survival and revival only require a modest increase in enthusiasts or church size.
