System Dynamics Notes

The following are a selection of notes used to introduce system dynamics on a mathematics degree using the software Stella. Stella is developed by ISEE Systems. The notes now use Stella 10 but they should be easily adapted to earlier versions and to Stella Architect.

Introduction to System Dynamics
Compounding & Draining Processes
Stella Guide 1
Introduction to System Dynamics
Stella Guide 2
Exploring Models 1 and Interfaces
Goal Seeking & Drifting Goal
Stella Guide 3
Exploring Models 2

Drifting Goal Solution & Exercises
Stella Guide 4
Exploring Models 3

Limits to Growth
Stella Guide 5
Building System Dynamics Models 1

Overshoot Collapse
Stella Guide 6

System Dynamics Sample Models

The following are system dynamics models built in Stella Architect, whose construction and results can be explored online.

Dynastic Cycle
Society with periods of stability, anarchy & despotism.
Collins Theory of Geopolitics – Theory of War
The growth or decline of an empire via the outcome of battles on their borders with outside people’s.
Collins Theory of Geopolitics – Logistical Load
The Collins model with limits to growth due to logistical issues at the frontier.
Turchin’s Metaethnic Frontier Theory of Imperial Growth
Imperial collapse is explained by the empire’s inability to keep generating asabiya – the social cooperation of its people.
Limited Enthusiasm Model of Church Growth
A model of the growth of the Christian Church in periods of religious revival. The growth mechanism is similar to the spread of an infectious disease.
Building a Model of Church Growth Using System Dynamics
This simulation talks you through the steps involved in building a simple model of church growth and decline. System dynamics terms are explained.

Agent-Based Modelling Notes

Introduction to Agent-Based Modelling
Patches & Cells
NetLogo Guide 1
Agents that Move
Turtles and Breeds
NetLogo Guide 2

Agent-Based Sample Models

The following are agent-based models built in NetLogo, whose construction and results can be explored online.

SIR Epidemic Lattice, Susceptible Led
The standard epidemic where there is a fixed probability of a susceptible being infected by an infected person in one of 8 neighbouring cells.
SIR Epidemic Lattice, Infected Led
The standard epidemic where there is a fixed probability of an infected person infecting a susceptible in one of 8 neighbouring cells