Posts by John Hayward

 
  • Church Growth and the Perils of Second-Order Feedback

    Feedback is the process where an action has an effect, which in turn changes the original action. Either it magnifies it ­– reinforcing feedback; or it corrects it – balancing feedback

     
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  • Feedback and Church Growth

    Feedback in a system that changes over time is the mechanism where an action results in an effect, which then, in turn, influences the original action. The action literally “feeds […]

     
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  • A Prophecy of Church Decline

    At the beginning of the New Year, David Robertson, a well-known Free Church of Scotland minister and blogger, gave ten prophecies for 2017 [1]. One of these particularly caught my […]

     
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  • Infectious Church Growth

    An “Agent-Based” View The central hypothesis I use to model church growth is that religious belief spreads like an infectious disease. This principle is built into the limited enthusiasm model […]

     
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  • The Rise and Decline of British Methodism

    Application of the Institutional Model of Church Growth Some while ago I introduced a model of church membership that explain the rapid growth of a church, only to be followed […]

     
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  • Rise and Decline of Western Civilisation

    Brexit, Corbyn and Trump It has been an interesting year in politics! I started writing this on the day that Jeremy Corbyn was re-elected leader of the British Labour Party. […]

     
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  • Modelling Secularisation

    Part 3 of Christianity versus the Diversity Ideology In two previous blogs [1,2] I have been constructing a dynamic model of the competition between Christianity and the new secular ideology. […]

     
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  • Churches or Political Parties: Who has the Largest Membership?

    Who has the greatest membership in the UK, the churches or the politcial parties? How do the dynamics of growth and decline compare?

     
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  • Revival is Real

    After all the blogs on church decline, I felt I needed to write on something more positive. Not that I am negative about the future of the Christian church. The […]

     
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  • Conversion to the Diversity Ideology

    Part 2 – Justification of Hypotheses In a previous blog [1] I outlined a system dynamics model of how Christianity is losing ground to a new movement in society, which […]

     
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